In March 2025, Jeffery Rath, a Canadian constitutional lawyer, appeared on “Fox and Friends” to promote Albertan independence and discuss a path forward that included an economic alliance with the United States.[1] Rath’s primary contention was that the federal government has ignored Alberta and that Albertans have more in common with Montanan farmers than Ottawan bureaucrats.[2]

Rath is not alone in his sentiment. Recently, the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) took several steps toward gaining independence.[3] One such step occurred on December 22, 2025, when the Albertan Government approved a “citizen initiative application,” which proposed a constitutional referendum question: “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state[4]”

APP lobbyists are simultaneously working toward securing an alliance with the United States.[6] As reported on its website, APP delegates met with the Trump Administration in Washington D.C. and secured U.S. support for Albertan independence  — should the referendum succeed.[7] However, the Trump Administration has not taken an official position Albertan independence, and the details of the meetings have remained largely undisclosed.[8]

Although an independent Alberta is far from certain, facilitating Albertan oil exports to and through the United States is the Trump Administration’s most plausible angle for supporting the province, which would further secure America’s oil supply while disrupting China’s. Recent data shows that Canada produced an average of 4.93 million barrels of crude oil each day for the trailing twelve months as of September 30, 2025.[9] Meanwhile, during that period, Canada exported an average of 10.31 billion barrels of oil products each month.[10] The data from the corresponding time period indicates that Alberta produced on average, approximately 19.98 cubic meters (or 125.70 million barrels) of oil products each month.[11] This is a notable increase from Canada’s last provincial economic data report in 2023, which showed that Alberta produced approximately 4.3 million barrels of crude oil a day, which accounted for 84% of Canada’s crude oil production.[12] In 2023, 79% of these exports went to the United States Midwest and Gulf Coast.[13] Relations between the United States and Canada have shifted since President Trump’s second term began.

American intervention in Venezuela put the United States in a more commanding position in the regional oil industry and simultaneously reduced China’s access to the American oil market.[14] With the emerging specter of President Trump’s “peace through strength” policy looming over both nations’ heads, China and Canada have turned to each other for solutions.[15] According to the terms of an emerging trade agreement between Canada and China, Canada will decrease its tariff on Chinese electric vehicle imports.[16] In exchange, China will decrease its tariffs on Canadian canola oil.[17] While Canada’s new trade deal with China does not pertain to oil exports, it represents a foot in the door to a new source of American oil and gives it the potential to significantly impact global politics.

Overall, backing Albertan independence may have strategic significance for the United States foreign policy. Regardless of whether it chooses to join the United States or strike out on its own, the Trump Administration should back Alberta’s move away from Canada for both short-term and long-term benefits. In the short term, supporting Albertan independence will give the United States access to another one of the world’s largest sources of crude oil and solidify its position as the leading energy superpower. More significantly, with regards to foreign relations, the move would also prevent China from regaining access to oil fields in the western hemisphere and supplementing their recent losses from Venezuela and Iran in the long term.

[1] Madison Colombo, Canadians are ‘fed up’ says Alberta lawyer leading delegation to Washington for statehood talks, FOX (March 6, 2025), https://www.foxnews.com/media/canadians-fed-up-says-alberta-lawyer-leading-delegation-washington-statehood-talks?msockid=378e46df428b6e463d1455cc43a76f25.

[2] Id.

[3] Alberta Prosperity Project’s Diplomatic Engagements in Washington: Building Alliances for a Sovereign Future, ALTA. PROSPERITY PROJECT, (Dec. 27, 2025) https://albertaprosperityproject.com/featured/independence-movements-around-the-world-seeking-international-support/ (last visited Feb. 18, 2026).

[4] Emma Zahou, Proposed referendum question on separation from Canada approved by Elections Alberta, CBC

(Dec. 22, 2025), https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-referendum-question-approved-9.7025892.

[5] Id.

[6] Alberta Prosperity Project’s Diplomatic Engagements in Washington: Building Alliances for a Sovereign Future, supra note 3.

[7] Id.

[8] Canadian separatists optimistic after meetings with Trump officials, NBC (Feb. 12, 2026), https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/canadian-separatists-optimistic-after-meetings-with-trump-officials/ar-AA1WcfkH?ocid=BingNewsVerp.

[9] Canada Crude Oil Production, TRADINGVIEW, https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ECONOMICS-CACOP/?timeframe=12M (last visited Feb 18, 2026).

[10] Id.

[11] Oil Production; Total Oil Production, ALBERTA.CA, (Jan 29, 2026), https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/dashboard/oil-production/ (last visited Fed. 18, 2026).

[12] Alberta Energy Profile: Oil and Gas: Production: Crude Oil, CAN. ENERGY REGUL. (Jan 1, 2026) https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-alberta.html (last visited Feb 2, 2026).

[13] Canadian Energy Profile: Oil and Gas: Trade and Transportation: Crude Oil and Liquids, CAN. ENERGY REGUL. (Jan 29, 2026), https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-canada.html#s4 (last visited Feb. 18, 2026).

[14] Chen Aizhu, Venezuelan oil exports to China set to drop as US blockade limits cargoes, REUTERS (Jan. 14, 2026), https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelan-oil-exports-china-set-drop-us-blockade-limits-cargoes-2026-01-14/.

[15] Id.

[16] Id.

[17] China will make fair ruling on Canadian canola, says commerce ministry, REUTERS (Feb. 12, 2026), https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-will-make-fair-ruling-canadian-canola-says-commerce-ministry-2026-02-12/.